Plover

A Pump graduate is down 94% a day later

−94.4%

Median change 24 hours after graduation, against the price 5 minutes after. 288 tokens.

We tracked every Pump.fun token that graduated to a real pool between Oct 27, 12:18 UTC and Oct 28, 12:04 UTC, 2026. Six in ten lost more than 90% within a day. One in twelve was up.

Median at 24 h
−94.4%95% CI −95.4 to −92.8
Lost over 90%
62%95% CI 57 to 68
Up after 24 h
8%95% CI 5 to 11

How many are still standing

Read a point as: this share of graduates kept at least this much of their price, 24 hours on.

Survival curve: share of 288 Pump graduates whose price after 24 hours was at or above each level of their 5-minute price. 38% kept at least 10%. 8% kept 100% or more.
Pump.fun graduates with 60-100 SOL pools, n=288, Oct 27-28, 2026. Source: Plover.
Source: Plover (plover.markets/data)

How we measured it

  1. Our feed logs each Pump.fun graduation as it happens and prices the token at 5 minutes, 1 hour and 24 hours after, from Jupiter's price API.
  2. The start price is the 5-minute price. Change is the 24-hour price against it.
  3. We keep real pools only: 60 to 100 SOL at graduation. We drop 353 tiny pools (under 60 SOL), which behave differently.
  4. Confidence intervals come from 10,000 bootstrap resamples.

A second, random sample of 197 graduations from Oct 21-25 gives a median of −97.0% (CI −98.3 to −95.2), so the result is not one bad day. The 1-hour median is −85.1%. This is a description of the past, not advice to trade.